“If you ain’t first, you’re last” -Ricky Bobby

At the start of each season, every single sports fan hopes that their favourite team will be the last one standing, holding the trophy up high with confetti raining down on the players as champions. In a modern society where instant gratification is paramount, fans have higher expectations than ever before. They want their team to not only win, but to win now. With that being said, more and more teams are instead trying to “build for the future” which is a nice way of saying “we’re going to be awful for a few years”. While this might sound like a nightmare to many fans, it may actually be the best way for their teams to have a chance at continued success.

How do teams go through the proverbial “rebuilding process”? They try to stockpile high draft picks to get young talent. That is why draft picks have become more important than ever as they are a symbol of hope for sports fans. They represent the potential of a franchise changing player that can help take their team to the promise land. In an effort to create parity, the four major North American sports leagues have set up the draft order where the worst performing teams of the previous season draft first. The NBA and NHL have the added intrigue where the worst team in the league has the highest odds of getting the first overall pick in a draft lottery. This is different from the NFL and MLB where the worst team automatically picks first.

The draft in any sport is a gamble. Teams are taking calculated risks on young prospects that have all the potential in the world. The teams able to develop their prospects to realize their potential will be successful. Teams have the chance to change their fortunes for the next 10-15 years in one night. But no matter how much physical, psychological, emotional, and statistical analysis teams undertake, there is no way for them to know for sure that the player they choose will pan out. The draft is not an exact science and there are simply no guarantees.

The subject of “tanking” has become a greater issue in recent years as the actions teams are taking to lose has gotten more extreme in hopes of getting as high a draft pick as possible. Tanking means teams trying to lose games on purpose in order to improve their draft position. It does not mean that the players and coaches are just not trying, but that the team is not actively doing everything in their power to win like they should. Teams are now trading away veteran players for draft picks, playing young players that may not be ready and signing bottom-tier free agents that most likely don’t belong in the league. These moves are all designed to make the team less competitive, lose games and move down in the standings in order to land a higher draft selection. In theory, tanking seems to be a pretty sound strategy. Have the team be awful for a few years, collect high draft picks, draft franchise players, develop them, win a championship, re-sign them once they’re free agents and then win more championships. In reality, it is very difficult to do that on a regular basis.

For sports fan, that is why tanking is such a polarizing topic. Some fans are upset when their team tanks, while other fans are fully behind it. Fans want to see their team win, plain and simple. While most fans understand that their team will not always be a contender, they also do not want to see their team not make every effort to try and improve. It can be tough to sit there and watch your team lose season after season, get top draft picks and still not be a championship contender. The losses can have extremely adverse effects on the fan base and the current players on the team. Existing fans may lose interest and potential new fans will be hard to attract with the continued defeats. The current players on the team will likely become frustrated because they are not put in the best possible position to win. They may decide to leave the team instead of waiting for the young players to develop, which would delay the rebuilding process even further.

The best example of this is the Edmonton Oilers who have had the 1st overall pick from the 2010-2012 NHL drafts. They drafted three very talented players in Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov. They have even had the good fortune of drafting Connor McDavid 1st overall in last year’s draft, yet they have finished as one of the worst teams in the NHL again. Having draft picks is a good thing, but management must be able to convert them into players that can mesh together to form a contending team that goes on to win a championship. None of the players that the Oilers have drafted would be considered flat-out busts and they have all shown the potential that got them high rankings. But the team has weaknesses at other positions and management has done a poor job of resolving them. The team should still be significantly more competitive and farther along on the “rebuilding plan” than it currently is. For whatever reason, it just has not worked out so far and the clock is ticking for management to turn it around.

That is the downside, but there is an upside to having multiple losing seasons and getting high draft picks. The fans that believe in tanking feel that the draft is the best way for their team to be competitive in the long run and do not mind watching their team lose in the present. They understand that there is a purpose behind it and that it will all be worth it when the team wins championships in the future. This is especially true for fans of smaller market teams who are at an inherent disadvantage to more attractive larger market teams that tend to land the elite free agents.

The Chicago Blackhawks and Pittsburgh Penguins are two leading recent examples of this. The Blackhawks selected Jonathan Toews 3rd overall in 2006 and Patrick Kane 1st overall in 2007. The two players have developed into two of the best players in the NHL and helped the team win three Stanley Cups in the past six years. The Pittsburgh Penguins selected Marc-Andre Fleury 1st overall in 2003, Evgeni Malkin 2nd overall in 2004 and Sidney Crosby 1st overall in 2005. The three players have formed the core of the team and led the Penguins to the Stanley Cup in 2009 and become a perennial contender. The common denominator to both team’s success over the past decade has been the ability for management to maintain their core talent together while continuously adding new players that complement them well.

It is no secret that having strong management is very important to the success of a sports franchise. But even if you put together the smartest and most experienced team of executives together, that is still no guarantee that they will be able to get it right. No matter what, there is always risk involved.

I think most sports fans are willing to suffer through some “tanking” seasons where the teams is awful knowing that there is the possibility of a championship in the future. I believe that is better than having your team continually be mediocre where they make the playoffs, but not have the players to win it all and then also not have high enough draft picks to add the necessary talent.

Ultimately, what we want is for our favourite team to win the last game of the season.

At some point, all we can do is sit back and hope that the odds will be in our favour.