It’s the most wonderful time of the year!
No, I’m not talking about Christmas. I’m talking about the NBA draft.
The NBA draft is a magical night because it can literally change a team’s fortunes overnight. Unlike the other major sports, the impact of one player in basketball is much greater. That’s why it is so important for teams to get it right because taking the right player can lead to multiple championships while taking the wrong player could set the team back for 5 years and get the GM and coach fired.
Now it’s easy for fans like myself, media members, analysts and the general public to criticize GM’s and front office staff for missing in the draft. Hindsight is always 20/20 and as much as teams would like to think their scouting will lead to them to the right player, there is simply no perfect way to determine if a player will pan out. There are a few sure things like a Lebron James or Anthony Davis once every few drafts, but for the most part it is always a calculated gamble. This year’s regular season MVP Stephen Curry was selected 7th in the 2009 draft. That means 6 teams passed on a guy who is arguably the best point guard and 2nd or 3rd best player in the NBA right now.
To put it in perspective: Hasheem Thabeet and Jonny Flynn were picked ahead of him…
Another example: Darko Milicic was picked ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in the 2003 draft.
Imagine if those teams had selected the right player instead of the bust they actually drafted.
Looking at the Warriors winning the title this year and how the core of the roster was constructed through the draft (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, Festus Ezeli), more and more teams are trying to build through the draft instead of trying to sign free agents with a quick fix mentality. The Spurs dynasty over the past decade was also built through the draft (Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard). This is especially important to small market teams that do not have the same pull to attract top level free agents as the big market teams (LA, New York, Miami, Chicago, Dallas). It is easier to convince your top talent to stay with your team after achieving some success rather than trying to chase top free agents year in and year out.
So without further adieu, here is my 2015 NBA mock draft based on which player I think each team SHOULD TAKE based on fit and talent, not who I think they will take. I’m also only going to talk about the lottery picks because that’s usually where the difference makers are drafted. There is potential for superstar talent outside of the lottery and in the 2nd round, but it is very rare.
1.
Karl-Anthony Towns PF/C Kentucky
Towns is an athletic big man that does not have a glaring weakness. He has a solid post game, good shooting touch that extends to the NBA 3 point line and is a shot blocker. The Timberwolves have a nice young core with Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Zach Lavine, Shabazz Muhammad and adding Towns would make them one of the NBA’s most athletic and exciting teams to watch.
2.
Jahlil Okafor C Duke
Okafor is a highly skilled low post player that has moves beyond his years. He can operate on both blockers and is a crafty finished around the rim. He is not a great athlete and does not do much right now defensively. I think he can be a decent defender with coaching, but he will never be a great shot blocker. His free throw shooting is also something teams worry about, but I think he will improve in that area because he will work hard at it. The Lakers have other options at this spot including D’angelo Russell if they end up getting Demarcus Cousins from the Kings, or if they feel they land Lamarcus Aldridge in free agency.
3.
D’angelo Russell PG Ohio State
I think Russell could end up being the best player out of this draft. I like his passing, scoring ability and overall feel for the game. The only knock against him is that he isn’t a supreme athlete like a Russell Westbrook, John Wall or Derrick Rose, but I think he is athletic enough to be a difference maker right away. He is my early pick to be NBA Rookie of the Year next season.
4.
Emmanuel Mudiay PG Guangdong, China
Mudiay is a polarizing prospect that has scouts and GM’s divided. He definitely fits into the boom or bust category and could end up as just another guy or a star. I’m leaning towards star as I think he has enough tools to be very good. Unlike D’angelo Russell, his greatest strength is his athleticism whereas his shooting and passing need polishing. I think he gives the Knicks a solid piece to build around with Carmelo Anthony.
5.
Kristaps Porzingis PF Sevilla
The mystery man of the draft. Talk about high risk high reward, most analysts predict that he will be either be Darko Milicic or Dirk Nowitzki. From the limited YouTube clips I’ve seen of him, he seems to have good athleticism and shooting touch that should translate well to the Magic who need shooting. I’m hoping he can help deter the negative stereotype of European busts early in the first round.
6.
Mario Hezonja SG/SF Barcelona
Another European that is athletic and can shoot the ball. The Kings already have Ben McLemore, Nik Stauskas, Rudy Gay, Omri Casspi and Derrick Williams at the wing positions, but I’m not sure if they are really sold on any of those guys going forward.
7.
Justise Winslow SG/SF Duke
Winslow was one of the best freshman and players overall in college basketball this past season. He plays with a lot of energy and was the heart and soul of the Duke team that won it all. I think he will be a very good player with a chance to be great if he can improve his handle and be a better shot creator for himself and his teammates.
8.
Stanley Johnson SF Arizona
Johnson could end being the long term solution for the Pistons at the small forward spot. He does not have a consistent jump shot right now, but he does have other physical tools including good strength and athleticism that should help him play right away. He has a confidence and grit to his game, that should help bring back a culture of toughness and strong defense that the Pistons are known for.
9.
Devin Booker SG Kentucky
Booker is one of the premier shooters in the draft and he reminds me of Bradley Beal. He would definitely fill the void left by the Lance Stephenson trade and form a nice young back court with Kemba Walker.
10.
Willie Cauley-Stein C Kentucky
The Heat already have Hassan Whiteside, but he’s only been a one season wonder so far. Cauley-Stein is a defensive specialist that fits in the Tyson Chandler/DeAndre Jordan mold. He can provide depth for the Heat and take the time to develop his very raw offensive game.
11.
Trey Lyles PF Kentucky
Lyles could end up being one of the sleepers of the draft as he’s not flashy, but does have a well-rounded and versatile game that will translate well to today’s NBA. He also played his high school basketball in Indianapolis, so this would be a nice homecoming for him and the community.
12.
Kelly Oubre SF Kansas
The Jazz have one of the best young starting 5’s going in the NBA with Dante Exum, Trey Burke, Gordan Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Oubre is great athlete that did not have a great year at Kansas. He can be another piece of the Jazz’s youth movement and take his time to develop his overall game. He has the highest upside out of the guys left at this point and the Jazz with no glaring need should take a chance on him.
13.
Frank Kaminski PF/C Wisconsin
Frank the Tank is a very skilled big man that can play the stretch 4 and occasionally the 5 spot. His biggest strengths are his shooting, low post moves and maturity. I have questions about his ability to defend at the NBA level as he isn’t a great athlete. However, he should still be a solid rotation player at worst and definitely has the potential to be a starter on a contending team down the road.
14.
Myles Turner PF/C Texas
Turner would provide an already loaded Thunder team with front court depth and possibly their starting center of the future. I see him being able to play with either Serge Ibaka or Enes Kanter and can take the time to develop his offense as he won’t be asked to score right away, just to play defense and grab rebounds.
There has been a lot of buzz surrounding this draft as there is a lot of depth at all positions. There may not be as many big names or future super stars like the 2003 draft, but teams expect a lot of the players to have very good careers. The potential trade talks also has me very excited as there could be multiple picks traded in the lottery with teams near the top wanting to move down and teams in the middle wanting to move up.
Make sure you tune in tonight and enjoy the draft!